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SubscriptionsSites I Read
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| HAHA....the first application I ever made with my limited programming knowledge using VB!!!!!!!!
Single digit calculator!!!!! kakaka
...which only handle single digit input...hahaha...very low b........
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| I used to be an science student when I was at secondary school.
Somehow, to me , science = rejection of the possibility of supernatural events, and I did also believe without a doubt a that human is a just one of the product from some kind of chemical biological random selections, and those theories are supposed to be proved by those very intelligent and knowledgeable scientists. I didn't look any evidence regarding to those "theories" since you won't question about the existence of those historical persons when you are reading a history text book. (may be just me)
From now on, I should just believe what make sense to me....
Here is an interesting story:
A low b Teddy went into a BMW dealership. Teddy is very excited, and he is speaking to a very intelligent car dealer, whose name is Darwin MD PHD XYZ.
Teddy can't move his eye away from an BMW M III, and he started to generate a serious of questions from his low B brain.
T: Well, this car looks awesome, and I wonder " is the building process complicated?"
D :I am sure it is, otherwise, it won't deserve that price.
Then it comes to the second question,
T: Does that take a long time to build?
D: The evolution for human did take a long time, so as cars! This MIII comes from random selection. Don't you think it looks like your civic? They are from the same family tree!!! There is not market for those ugly cars. As a result, only nice car survive all ugly car got killed (discontinued). It is called Darwin Automobile Theory. According to the my theory, the current BMW MIII came from the evolution of car, which is 100% NATURAL process.
T: Wow, evolution of car sounds very scientific, sound good to me!! O wait...wait a minutes, natural process? by random probability?
D: ......yes very random and very natural......"week meat, strong eat"......
T: Anyways ......can you tell me more about the automobile history. Who build it?
D: ummm...according to Random Selection, the creation of the first car is created during an random collision of parts.....factory workers moved those parts randomly.......and you know what? it becomes our first car in our history!!
T: Wuhu~~~......Sounds very scientific to me!!!!
Teddy then looks at the the BMW again.
T: This car has lot of parts. I believe the first car in history may have less...but should be still a lot . How do they assemble? random process again?
D: yes!!! it's amazing, isn't it?
T: errrrrrr ging amazing....
Then Teddy take out a history text book called the bible of automobile,
"In 1769, the very first self-propelled
road vehicle was a military tractor invented by French engineer and mechanic,
Nicolas Joseph Cugnot (1725 - 1804). " Automobile Genesis 1
T: why my history text book tells me a different story. There is an designer called Nicolas man! There should be a designer @ the first place.
wellll... A random process which generates a car, or a creator who designed a car?
Should I believe in Darwin? Does it still make sense.....?
Well..... my conclusion: A creator makes more sense to me hahahaha........
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| Oil Price reaches record high everyday.......
=>the economic value for a hybrid car also reaches a record high everyday
Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future (shoot!)
MPG for a Toyota prius is about 47 =>1 mile =1/47= 0.02
MPG for a normal vehicle is around 25 =>1 mile = 1/25=0.04
so a Prius can save you about 50% of your $$ on gas
Assuming the current gas price is $4/gallon
Say you drive a non-prius 30 miles a day, you have to spend 30*7*0.04*$4=$34 a week, $136 a month.
Having a puris save you 68 dollar a month, 68*12=$816 a year
Assuming the oil future keep increasing to$200 per gallon in 2009
The growth rate is like (200-143)/143=40% next year and for simplicity,
we assuming it grow at 10% afterward (well little agressive), and the useful life for a Puris is 15yr.
Other Assumptions:
no inflation, same efficient for the puris and no alternate cheaper energy for the next 15 yr,the real discount rate = 6%, 0 residual value and we will be still alive for the next 15 years
We have:
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| Yr |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
| Growth Rate |
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40% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Savings $ from driving a puris |
816 |
1,142 |
1,257 |
1,382 |
1,521 |
1,673 |
1,840 |
2,024 |
2,226 |
2,449 |
2,694 |
2,963 |
3,259 |
3,585 |
3,944 |
| Discount factor |
0.95 |
0.91 |
0.86 |
0.82 |
0.78 |
0.75 |
0.71 |
0.68 |
0.64 |
0.61 |
0.58 |
0.56 |
0.53 |
0.51 |
0.48 |
| Present value of savings |
777 |
1036 |
1086 |
1137 |
1191 |
1248 |
1308 |
1370 |
1435 |
1503 |
1575 |
1650 |
1729 |
1811 |
1897 |
| NPV (sum of all savings) |
$
20,753 |
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Driving a Prius saves you $20,753 at present value point of view.......
The current price for a toyota 08 Prius is $21,100 and your instant saving is $20,753 in present value.
Say if you can borrow $21,100 at 6% to finance your puris, your out of pocket cost is only $21,100-$20,753=247...
Pay $247 dollar now.....and you not only get a brand new a prius but also able to hedge all your future gas cost for 15 years........sounds like a great deal
I used to believe that buying a car is never an investment but an expenses...coz it can only depreciate but never apreciate.......but buying a hybrid is different since it generates decent savings from the time you buy the car
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|  In the past, it’s kind of difficult for people to measure
how stable they can be when they are in a relationship because:
1)
there is no record
2)
nobody actually make an attempt to measure that But now, we may make it possible by
applying some concepts we learnt in finance.
What you have to do is:
-open a facebook account
-record changes in the
relationship status and the date of changes.
It’s like checking the stock price
and making a stock price chart.
And here is the curve you will
probably come up with: 
You will probably see different
pattern of graph by looking at different couples.
Some couples are slightly more volatile,
which means having more peaks and troughs in a short time frame.
Some couples may have a flat curve, which means they are stable all the time. (highly unlikely)
We can calculate the standard deviation to measure how volatile the relationship is.
For long term Projects
We can even make an index for our relationship status, like a real stock market.
Here is an interesting project we
can do.
1)
build an index for 500 couples to replicate the entire population regarding to
their relationship status
(S&P500 - well diversified porfolio)
2)
then we can measure the market relationship
status change (marketing return), volatility, Status/Age ratio (P/E ratio), etc
3)
You can also regress your relationship status to
the 500 index to see how risky is your relationship (relationship status Beta)
4)
See if US GDP and CPI do affect the
change of relationship status (Macroeconomics Analysis)
5) There may even exist some way for us to hedge our relationship status by creating derivatives, call and put options.
6) You can research the best girl./ boy friend by looking on their historical data or perform some
analysis on your competitors or targets. (Equity Research and Forecasting)
Ok…time to get
back to work. If I see something like this on the facebook in the future, it will be very
interesting.
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| I like this article from Forbes magazine. It utilizes what I learned as an Economics Major hahahaha....
In September an anonymous self-described "spectacularly beautiful"
25-year-old woman made it known on Craigslist that she wanted to snag a
rich husband ("marriage only!"). She was soon transformed into a
world-renowned gold digger when a sarcastic Wall Streeter responded to
her post anonymously, using financial terms to prove that her
beauty-for-money offer was a "crappy business deal." The sparring
swiftly took on viral wings, rehashed on countless blogs and Web sites.
How good is this guy's economics? Not great by our reckoning.
"In economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset."
While the woman's looks may indeed fade with time, her genes
could deliver beauty dividends in perpetuity by way of any children
produced with the Wall Streeter. A 2005 study found that attractive
people tended to earn 5% more than their not-hot colleagues.
Financially successful progeny could bode well for the Wall Streeter's
retirement years.
"I was taught about efficient markets. I find it hard to believe
that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are, that the [rich husband]
hasn't found you."
That's because, says economist Tyler Cowen, there isn't much of
a market for beautiful young women seeking rich husbands. People tend
to marry those with a common socioeconomic background. Therefore, a
rich man would look for a woman with similar economic assets, who would
also make a good wife and mother.
"A deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage. It doesn't make good sense to buy you, so I'd rather lease."
According to The Case for Marriage, published in 2002,
married people are better off financially, healthier and happier than
their single counterparts. This goes double for men, where numerous
studies show that men who "buy" are happier and live longer than men
who "lease."
"My income increases, but it is an absolutely certainty that you
won't be getting any more beautiful. By 35, stick a fork in you!"
These days, with Botox, cosmetic fillers, plastic surgery and
proper diet and exercise a woman is just getting started by 35.
Doubtful even this arrogant Wall Streeter would stick a fork in Cameron
Diaz (35), Jennifer Lopez (37), Jennifer Aniston (38), Julia
Roberts(40), Halle Berry (41), Salma Hayek (41) or Demi Moore (44).
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